A LOOK into the future of Victoria's food supply has concluded that there is a strong case for government intervention to avoid nutritious food shortages in the decades ahead.

A two-year project by Melbourne University's Victorian Eco-Innovation Lab (VEIL) came up with three scenarios and how they might impact on Victoria's and Australia's supply of nutritious food up to 2060.

The scenarios included the impact of reliance on food imports, dwindling fuel supplies, climate change, population growth, water supply, and the rise of the green movement and the backyard gardener.

Lead researcher Kirsten Larsen said that while the modelling could never be more than crystal-ball gazing it provided a strong case for urgent intervention.

"This project demonstrates just how fragile and intertwined the food and environmental ecosystem is," Ms Larsen said.

"We can't predict the future but we can say for certain that swift action taken now can reduce the chances of nutritious food shortages in the future."

VicHealth spokesman Associate Professor John Fitzgerald said the research was particularly timely.

"Given the state government's leadership to secure the food production capacity of Victoria, this report will contribute to ongoing discussions around the future of availability of fresh nutritious food," he said.

The first scenario looked at producers getting the highest return for food and the likelihood that it would be exported for top dollar rather than reserved for locals, leading to a deficit of fruits, nuts and vegetables.

The second scenario had land allocated and managed by governments, resulting in a surplus of all food groups, while the third scenario looked at greater interaction between producers and consumers.

That scenario resulted in an adequate supply of foods except cereal grains, which were diverted to biofuels.

The report is to be launched at the Three Pillars Sustainable Food summit in Melbourne tomorrow.

Herald Sun - April 5 2011- Story also ran in The Daily Telegraph and Courier Mail.

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